Graph coverage
fresh86nodes
144edges
15current/open
4contradictions
4unsupported open
Source ledger
researchtrueverify
62events
24add76213ec8935chain tip
283c9daeb2c16fdagraph_hash
source ledger generated not found · verifier now fails closed if this current graph is stale relative to the source ledger event count or chain tip.
Current frontier
Ranked research hypotheses from explicit graph evidence. context-only; not a recommendation or trade permission.
| hypothesis | rank score | confidence | evidence strength | status | tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blind creator-chart replication artifacts are ready to become first-class ledger evidence, but not yet validated enough for promotion without review. | 77 | high | 77 | open | creator-chart, moonshot-research, seed-v1 |
| Evidence Graph v0.1 is operationally useful once seeded and paired with deterministic query, report, and diff tooling. | 70 | high | 70 | open | evidence-graph, lineage-v1, moonshot |
| Moonshot promotion gates should prioritize evidence completeness and reject under-evidenced candidates over maximizing daily activity. | 67 | high | 67 | open | moonshot-research, promotion-gate, seed-v1 |
| Evidence Graph v0.1 has the right architecture but remains operationally toy-sized until seeded with real hypotheses and evidence. | 63 | high | 63 | open | evidence-graph, moonshot-research, seed-v1 |
| The daily operator brief should surface only current-frontier ledger priorities once lineage/supersession views exist. | 51 | high | 51 | open | evidence-graph, lineage-v1, moonshot |
| Backtest honesty artifacts should be treated as gate evidence for research claims, not as proof of deployable edge. | 47 | medium | 47 | open | backtests, moonshot-research, seed-v1 |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is a reproducible context-only provenance source when linked through run manifests and Hypothesis Ledger evidence checks. | 39 | medium | 39 | open | evidence-graph, lineage-v1, moonshot |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is reproducible enough to serve as a context-only provenance source for Moonshot research reviews. | 38 | medium | 38 | open | market-intelligence, moonshot-research, seed-v1 |
Explain score
Deterministic confidence_v1 provenance: evidence strength, diversity bonus, unique sources, and key evidence IDs.
| hypothesis | rank score | evidence strength | diversity bonus | unique sources | key evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blind creator-chart replication artifacts are ready to become first-class ledger evidence, but not yet validated enough for promotion without review. | 77 | 77 | 15 | 5 | ev_1f9e42ab77cc46ef, ev_452310cd5da5466b, ev_79a282f6ed46456f |
| Evidence Graph v0.1 is operationally useful once seeded and paired with deterministic query, report, and diff tooling. | 70 | 70 | 10 | 2 | ev_214d0d3828f04003, ev_cd5b93b4060b49a4 |
| Moonshot promotion gates should prioritize evidence completeness and reject under-evidenced candidates over maximizing daily activity. | 67 | 67 | 15 | 4 | ev_4a3542dc43004fb0, ev_566bae83c62740d5, ev_13e3b36419404cce |
| Evidence Graph v0.1 has the right architecture but remains operationally toy-sized until seeded with real hypotheses and evidence. | 63 | 63 | 15 | 3 | ev_6c52c5390b8d4d21, ev_8bf6a74287d946cd, ev_5aa61ed0a1d445f3 |
| The daily operator brief should surface only current-frontier ledger priorities once lineage/supersession views exist. | 51 | 51 | 10 | 2 | ev_08a5b139db874aed, ev_0677feb5119744d4 |
| Backtest honesty artifacts should be treated as gate evidence for research claims, not as proof of deployable edge. | 47 | 47 | 15 | 3 | ev_7c3b3ece99a647c8, ev_2892477ff97041b5, ev_dece710701d24b2e |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is a reproducible context-only provenance source when linked through run manifests and Hypothesis Ledger evidence checks. | 39 | 39 | 10 | 2 | ev_2db61c9f60ab4baa, ev_b55818b843bb4e40 |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is reproducible enough to serve as a context-only provenance source for Moonshot research reviews. | 38 | 38 | 15 | 4 | ev_857c0b34ae014823, ev_4e070937c6dd4478, ev_3fb76e060c314a53 |
Lineage summary
Why each frontier hypothesis is current, plus supersedes / superseded_by / related_to lineage context.
| hypothesis | why current | supersedes | superseded by | related to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blind creator-chart replication artifacts are ready to become first-class ledger evidence, but not yet validated enough for promotion without review. | current=true; no superseded_by | |||
| Evidence Graph v0.1 is operationally useful once seeded and paired with deterministic query, report, and diff tooling. | current=true; no superseded_by | hyp_9afd9781547b4f3d | hyp_b8e9067d7cd24be9 | |
| Moonshot promotion gates should prioritize evidence completeness and reject under-evidenced candidates over maximizing daily activity. | current=true; no superseded_by | |||
| Evidence Graph v0.1 has the right architecture but remains operationally toy-sized until seeded with real hypotheses and evidence. | current=false or superseded lineage present | hyp_a01cedd5caae4a2f | ||
| The daily operator brief should surface only current-frontier ledger priorities once lineage/supersession views exist. | current=true; no superseded_by | hyp_dbaa35e51cd146f4 | hyp_f732bd55411c49e1 | |
| Backtest honesty artifacts should be treated as gate evidence for research claims, not as proof of deployable edge. | current=true; no superseded_by | |||
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is a reproducible context-only provenance source when linked through run manifests and Hypothesis Ledger evidence checks. | current=true; no superseded_by | hyp_92ea24bdfb594412 | hyp_f0a2dd50a1e040f0 | |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is reproducible enough to serve as a context-only provenance source for Moonshot research reviews. | current=true; no superseded_by | hyp_225ee2eb36214f1a |
Artifact/report links
Key evidence mapped to underlying graph artifact/report nodes. artifact link values are stable page anchors, not trading actions.
| evidence | artifact | artifact path | artifact link |
|---|---|---|---|
| ev_1f9e42ab77cc46ef | jake_typed.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/jake_typed.md | #artifact-claim-96e4217aae17a4f8a6291465a9e4d3ed |
| ev_452310cd5da5466b | ripster_typed.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/ripster_typed.md | #artifact-claim-8a15e1ed2df6b735f30945bf332cd041 |
| ev_79a282f6ed46456f | ripster_blind.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/ripster_blind.md | #artifact-claim-e25f0c929e221ced38aef770bf4d317b |
| ev_79a282f6ed46456f | Blind creator-chart replication artifacts are ready to become first-class ledger evidence, but not yet validated enough for promotion without review. | #artifact-hypothesis-hyp_eda5981687cc4f28 | |
| ev_214d0d3828f04003 | run_manifest:0e4e50104064575749ccc6e92ad10964 | #artifact-run_manifest-0e4e50104064575749ccc6e92ad10964 | |
| ev_cd5b93b4060b49a4 | evidence_graph_query_report_diff_supersedes_seed_toy.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/lineage_v1_20260709/evidence_graph_query_report_diff_supersedes_seed_toy.md | #artifact-claim-18ad4bdb9695cad5524638908c7e8da0 |
| ev_4a3542dc43004fb0 | promotion_gate.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/promotion_gate.md | #artifact-claim-c6872118b9c56fb70f86710652ec40d4 |
| ev_566bae83c62740d5 | risk_veto.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/risk_veto.md | #artifact-claim-78c1b1e5eb015986424c191b091c4061 |
| ev_13e3b36419404cce | operator_brief.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/operator_brief.md | #artifact-claim-feeffcdd505cd73766b9dd769470f87e |
| ev_6c52c5390b8d4d21 | evidence_graph_sprint.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/evidence_graph_sprint.md | #artifact-claim-c4b65e3da99e59fc8b217c9fce6cba2d |
| ev_8bf6a74287d946cd | evidence_graph_grok.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/evidence_graph_grok.md | #artifact-claim-4ffbd1bf5b06f58763cb278431861214 |
| ev_5aa61ed0a1d445f3 | evidence_graph_design.md | /mnt/HC_Volume_105414797/moonshot-trading-lab/data/hypothesis-ledger/evidence-snapshots/seed_v1_20260709/evidence_graph_design.md | #artifact-claim-e86c6cda55be4fac5290776078611557 |
Contradictions
Explicit contradicts edges to inspect before treating any hypothesis as stronger research context.
| evidence | hypothesis | relation |
|---|---|---|
| evidence:ev_52d9f51633fe46bf | Regime Atlas should not be built until seeded ledger evidence shows recurring regime/context claims worth organizing. | contradicts |
| evidence:ev_6f673bd8436b47a5 | The daily operator brief can become a hub for surfacing ledger-backed research priorities if every item links to evidence artifacts. | contradicts |
| evidence:ev_857c0b34ae014823 | Market Intelligence v0.3.1 is reproducible enough to serve as a context-only provenance source for Moonshot research reviews. | contradicts |
| evidence:ev_a806b705b57b4d7c | The hardened Hypothesis Ledger is trustworthy enough to act as the Moonshot research-memory kernel for short audit trails. | contradicts |
Unsupported open
Current/open hypotheses with no direct supports relation in the current graph; direct supports only, no transitive support inferred.
| hypothesis | rank score | confidence | reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Options freshness remains an unresolved blocker for any options-flavored research artifact until stable snapshot provenance is demonstrated. | 22 | low | no supports relation in current graph |
| Market Intelligence v0.3.1 cache-only replay remains a reproducible research context layer when raw public-response cache hashes verify. | 37 | medium | no supports relation in current graph |
| The current market-watch report is useful context but insufficient by itself to support or refute any setup-level hypothesis. | 22 | low | no supports relation in current graph |
| Regime Atlas should not be built until seeded ledger evidence shows recurring regime/context claims worth organizing. | 3 | low | no supports relation in current graph |
Relation preview
| relation | source | target |
|---|---|---|
| derived_from | evidence:ev_0677feb5119744d4 | claim:6b39fbf561d4d00f203d78c94a2a269c |
| supports | evidence:ev_0677feb5119744d4 | hypothesis:hyp_957f859286e04500 |
| derived_from | evidence:ev_08a5b139db874aed | raw_cache:a9eedb909ec4edb9f1653f2106eee1fe |
| supports | evidence:ev_08a5b139db874aed | hypothesis:hyp_957f859286e04500 |
| context | evidence:ev_13e3b36419404cce | hypothesis:hyp_5941721706094491 |
| derived_from | evidence:ev_13e3b36419404cce | claim:feeffcdd505cd73766b9dd769470f87e |
| derived_from | evidence:ev_1f9e42ab77cc46ef | claim:96e4217aae17a4f8a6291465a9e4d3ed |
| supports | evidence:ev_1f9e42ab77cc46ef | hypothesis:hyp_eda5981687cc4f28 |
Summarizes linked artifacts, blockers, catalyst context, contradictions, and audit provenance. Not promotion permission · no broker · no orders · no buy/sell/hold advice.
research_only=truecontext_only=trueno_live_permission=truebroker_connected=falseorders_enabled=false