SpaceX Q2 2026
Source-bound record of management targets versus later disclosed outcomes.
Call: SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call · 2026-08-04
Next call: not_announced — No official Q3 2026 call date was confirmed in the validated materials. Track the IR calendar; do not infer a date from filing deadlines.
Official filings and release
Q2 reported readout
| metric | value | context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.814B | Q2 2026 reported revenue; official filing. |
| Net loss | $(541)M | Q2 2026 GAAP net loss; official filing. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.538B | Non-GAAP; use alongside the reconciliation in EX-99.1. |
| Capital expenditures | $18.369B | Q2 reported CapEx; AI CapEx was $15.828B. |
| Nameplate compute | 1.4 GW | Q2 disclosed baseline; management target is >2 GW by year-end 2026. |
The official release documents rapid revenue growth and unusually heavy AI-oriented capital spending alongside a GAAP loss. The tracker separates reported facts from management targets: ARR, compute, Starship cadence, constellation scale, lunar operations, and long-term revenue are forward-looking claims.
What the $27.955B of non-cancelable commitments means
Total: $27.955B · Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 16 — Commitments and Contingencies.
Unconditional, non-cancelable contractual commitments. The filing identifies the categories but does not disclose a dollar-by-dollar split among them.
Included categories
- Investments in AI infrastructure
- Third-party cloud-capacity arrangements
- Other service arrangements
- Spectrum Transaction commitments payable in cash and Class A common stock
Payment schedule
| period | amount |
|---|---|
| 2026 remaining six months | $2.728B |
| 2027 | $22.244B |
| 2028 | $2.172B |
| 2029 | $809M |
| 2030 | $2M |
| Total | $27.955B |
Read-through
- This is commitment exposure, not debt outstanding and not one identified contract.
- About 80% of the disclosed total falls due in 2027, creating a concentrated execution and cash-use test.
- The filing supports a real infrastructure buildout, but it does not disclose how much belongs to AI equipment, outside cloud capacity, services, or the spectrum transaction.
- Do not equate these non-cancelable cost commitments with contracted cloud revenue: the 10-Q says certain cloud-services arrangements may be terminated by either party on 90 days’ notice after ramp-up.
The Spectrum Transaction covers EchoStar AWS-4, H-Block, and up to 15 MHz of AWS-3 licenses. SpaceX had paid $856M by June 30 through the Spectrum Credit Agreement; payments are structured as loans to the trust but expected to be forgiven and accounted for as spectrum purchase consideration.
Claims and scorecard baseline
Initial statuses are deliberately not-yet-due. Update each row only with an attributable subsequent call, filing, launch record, or other dated evidence.
| topic | claim | speaker | horizon | status | confidence | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARR | $100B annualized revenue run rate by end-2026 | Management / Bret Johnsen | 2026-12-31 | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | CNBC live coverage; official release supports related operating context |
| Revenue | $1T annual revenue by 2030; non-zero chance of 2029 | Elon Musk | 2030 | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | Fortune India / BBC / Ars reporting |
| AI compute | >2 GW compute capacity by end-2026 | Management | 2026-12-31 | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | CNBC; 1.4 GW Q2 baseline in official release |
| AI compute | Closer to 10 GW than 5 GW by end-2027 | Elon Musk | 2027-12-31 | not_yet_due | partly_verified | Secondary call reporting; keep separate from tentative 20-GW power/cooling remark |
| Orbital compute | Begin Starmind AI-1 launches in 2027 | Elon Musk | 2027 | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | Ars / Aviation Week / CNBC reporting |
| Starship | Flight 14: operational orbit and operational V3 Starlink deployment; Ship catch subject to approval | Elon Musk | 2026-08 tentative | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | SpaceNews |
| Starship | At least one Starship flight per day, possibly more | Elon Musk | ~2027-08 | not_yet_due | partly_verified | SpaceNews; stated as 'probably a year from now' |
| Starship | Well over 1M tons/year to orbit; ultimately ~10M tons/year | Elon Musk | long_term | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | Fortune India |
| Moon | Build factories on Moon; desire for boots on Moon in 2028 | Elon Musk / Gwynne Shotwell | 2028 / long_term | not_yet_due | partly_verified | Fortune India / Aviation Week |
| Starlink V3 | ~1,000 V3 satellites at meaningful scale by roughly Q2 2027 | Elon Musk | 2027-Q2 | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | SpaceNews |
| Starlink | Enterprise/government revenue eventually substantially exceeds consumer | Elon Musk / Gwynne Shotwell | long_term | not_yet_due | corroborated_call_reporting | Call reporting; Q2 reported mix remains consumer-led |
| Starlink mobile | Standalone mobile service / first customers in 2027 | Gwynne Shotwell | 2027 | not_yet_due | partly_verified | CNBC call reporting |
| M&A | Close $60B Cursor acquisition in Q3 2026 | Company / Elon Musk | 2026-Q3 | not_yet_due | official_release | SEC EX-99.1; subject to closing conditions |