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SpaceX Tracker

Quarterly executive promises, reported results, and evidence-bound outcome tracking.

Executive promises tracker

SpaceX Q2 2026

Source-bound record of management targets versus later disclosed outcomes.

Call: SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call · 2026-08-04

Next call: not_announced — No official Q3 2026 call date was confirmed in the validated materials. Track the IR calendar; do not infer a date from filing deadlines.

Official filings and release

Q2 reported readout

metricvaluecontext
Revenue$7.814BQ2 2026 reported revenue; official filing.
Net loss$(541)MQ2 2026 GAAP net loss; official filing.
Adjusted EBITDA$3.538BNon-GAAP; use alongside the reconciliation in EX-99.1.
Capital expenditures$18.369BQ2 reported CapEx; AI CapEx was $15.828B.
Nameplate compute1.4 GWQ2 disclosed baseline; management target is >2 GW by year-end 2026.

The official release documents rapid revenue growth and unusually heavy AI-oriented capital spending alongside a GAAP loss. The tracker separates reported facts from management targets: ARR, compute, Starship cadence, constellation scale, lunar operations, and long-term revenue are forward-looking claims.

10-Q filing detail

What the $27.955B of non-cancelable commitments means

Total: $27.955B · Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, Note 16 — Commitments and Contingencies.

Unconditional, non-cancelable contractual commitments. The filing identifies the categories but does not disclose a dollar-by-dollar split among them.

Included categories

  • Investments in AI infrastructure
  • Third-party cloud-capacity arrangements
  • Other service arrangements
  • Spectrum Transaction commitments payable in cash and Class A common stock

Payment schedule

periodamount
2026 remaining six months$2.728B
2027$22.244B
2028$2.172B
2029$809M
2030$2M
Total$27.955B

Read-through

  • This is commitment exposure, not debt outstanding and not one identified contract.
  • About 80% of the disclosed total falls due in 2027, creating a concentrated execution and cash-use test.
  • The filing supports a real infrastructure buildout, but it does not disclose how much belongs to AI equipment, outside cloud capacity, services, or the spectrum transaction.
  • Do not equate these non-cancelable cost commitments with contracted cloud revenue: the 10-Q says certain cloud-services arrangements may be terminated by either party on 90 days’ notice after ramp-up.

The Spectrum Transaction covers EchoStar AWS-4, H-Block, and up to 15 MHz of AWS-3 licenses. SpaceX had paid $856M by June 30 through the Spectrum Credit Agreement; payments are structured as loans to the trust but expected to be forgiven and accounted for as spectrum purchase consideration.

Claims and scorecard baseline

Initial statuses are deliberately not-yet-due. Update each row only with an attributable subsequent call, filing, launch record, or other dated evidence.

topicclaimspeakerhorizonstatusconfidencesource
ARR$100B annualized revenue run rate by end-2026Management / Bret Johnsen2026-12-31not_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingCNBC live coverage; official release supports related operating context
Revenue$1T annual revenue by 2030; non-zero chance of 2029Elon Musk2030not_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingFortune India / BBC / Ars reporting
AI compute>2 GW compute capacity by end-2026Management2026-12-31not_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingCNBC; 1.4 GW Q2 baseline in official release
AI computeCloser to 10 GW than 5 GW by end-2027Elon Musk2027-12-31not_yet_duepartly_verifiedSecondary call reporting; keep separate from tentative 20-GW power/cooling remark
Orbital computeBegin Starmind AI-1 launches in 2027Elon Musk2027not_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingArs / Aviation Week / CNBC reporting
StarshipFlight 14: operational orbit and operational V3 Starlink deployment; Ship catch subject to approvalElon Musk2026-08 tentativenot_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingSpaceNews
StarshipAt least one Starship flight per day, possibly moreElon Musk~2027-08not_yet_duepartly_verifiedSpaceNews; stated as 'probably a year from now'
StarshipWell over 1M tons/year to orbit; ultimately ~10M tons/yearElon Musklong_termnot_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingFortune India
MoonBuild factories on Moon; desire for boots on Moon in 2028Elon Musk / Gwynne Shotwell2028 / long_termnot_yet_duepartly_verifiedFortune India / Aviation Week
Starlink V3~1,000 V3 satellites at meaningful scale by roughly Q2 2027Elon Musk2027-Q2not_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingSpaceNews
StarlinkEnterprise/government revenue eventually substantially exceeds consumerElon Musk / Gwynne Shotwelllong_termnot_yet_duecorroborated_call_reportingCall reporting; Q2 reported mix remains consumer-led
Starlink mobileStandalone mobile service / first customers in 2027Gwynne Shotwell2027not_yet_duepartly_verifiedCNBC call reporting
M&AClose $60B Cursor acquisition in Q3 2026Company / Elon Musk2026-Q3not_yet_dueofficial_releaseSEC EX-99.1; subject to closing conditions